There are few teams in the world playing as well as Argentina, which is heading to what seems like a safe place for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. That’s the challenge Peru faces on Thursday as they head to Buenos Aires hoping to walk away with at least one point to keep dreaming of joining Lionel Messi and Argentina in Qatar.
Peru (3-6-2, 11 points) is four points behind fifth place in the South American standings, which would guarantee advancement to a World Cup play-in series against a team from another region. A narrow 1-0 loss in Bolivia on Sunday was a blow to Peruvians’ qualifying hopes and a trip to Argentina’s Estadio Monumental will prove even more overwhelming.
Reigning Copa América champion Argentina (6-0-4, 22 points) is undefeated in 24 consecutive games since July 2019. In front of their supporters at the Monumental Stadium, the Argentines put on another show in the 3-0 victory about Uruguay. on his last outing on Sunday. Not everything was easy in that game, and Argentina could have easily been left behind had it not been for a couple of stellar saves by goalkeeper Emiliano “Dra” Martínez. But history is in his favor against Peru.
MORE: South America standings, results and schedule
The all-time series is decidedly in Argentina’s favor (33-5-14): Peru has not beaten Argentina in any competition since the 1997 Copa América and the Peruvians have never won a qualifier in Buenos Aires. But they can at least hope to replicate their performance against Argentina in the 2017 tie in Buenos Aires when they came out with a 0-0 draw.
How to watch Argentina vs. Peru
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 14
- Weather: 7:30 pm ET
- Transmission: fuboTV
Argentina vs. Peru and all qualifying matches for the World Cup in South America can be broadcast exclusively on fuboTV in English and Spanish.
The games are also available on pay-per-view through cable and satellite television providers.
Argentina vs. Peru: lineups
Head coach Lionel Scaloni has a full squad available for the selection and, as is customary in his rosters, has several interchangeable parts, such is the competitive level of Argentina’s roster. Normally he rotates his right backs (Gonzalo Montiel and Nahuel Molina) and left backs (Marcos Acuña and Nicolás Tagliafico), his central midfielders (Guido Rodríguez, Leandro Paredes and Exequiel Palacios) and his wing positions (Nico González or Ángel Di María).
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Reports indicate that the only injury concern is left-back Acuña and whether he will make a full recovery from a muscle injury that kept him out of the win against Uruguay. As a right-back, Molina could take a break after starting the last two games and could give way to Sevilla Montiel.
Argentina’s projected starting lineup (4-3-3, left to right): 23-Emiliano Martinez-GK – 3-Nicolás Tagliafico, 19-Nicolás Otamendi, 13-Cristian Romero, 4-Gonzalo Montiel – 20-Giovani Lo Celso, 18-Guido Rodríguez, 7-Rodrigo De Paul – 15-Nicolás González, 22 -Lautaro Martínez, 10-Lionel Messi
Argentina Projected Subscribers: 12-Juan Musso-GK, 1-Franco Armani-GK, 6-German Pezzella, 2-Facundo Medina, 2-Lucas Martinez Quarta, Marcos Acuña, 21-Nahuel Molina, 5-Leandro Paredes, 14-Exequiel Palacios, 22- Lucas Alario, Julian Alvarez, 17-Alejandro ‘Papu’ Gomez, Angel Correa, 16-Joaquin Correa, 11-Angel Di Maria
Peru will be left without several players of initial caliber: Paolo Guerrero, Renato Tapia, Edison Flores, Andre Carrillo and Luis Advincula, who joined the list with a muscle strain. Peruvian media indicates that head coach Ricardo Gareca was working with the following group before the game:
Peru Projected Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1, Left to Right): 1-Pedro Gallese-GK – 6-Miguel Trauco, 22-Alexander Callens, 5-Carlos Zambrano, 4-Jhilmar Lora – 19-Yoshimar Yotun, 23-Pedro Aquino – 11-Raziel García, 7-Sergio Peña, 8-Christian Cave – 9-Gianluca Lapadula
Projected subsidies in Peru: 21-Jose Carvallo-GK, 12-Carlos Caceda-GK, 3-Marcos Lopez, 2-Luis Abram, Oslimg Mora, 15-Christian Ramos, 13-Wilder Cartagena, 16-Christofer Gonzales, 10-Jefferson Farfan, 16-Gabriel Costa, 18-Santiago Ormeno, Horacio Calcaterra, Alex Valera
Argentina vs. Peru: betting odds and prediction
Fees courtesy of DraftKings
Choose: Under 2.75 total Asian goals (+105)
Especially in light of their absences, Peru will likely aim to leave the city with a draw. That would require a conservative strategy dictated about disrupting the flow of the game. You don’t want to get into a court match against Argentina’s transition game.
For an example of what to expect, take Peru’s away game in Brazil in September: 29 combined fouls, nine total yellow cards and just five total shots on target. In the October 2017 goalless draw in Buenos Aires, also with Gareca as their coach, Peru only fired two shots.
The Under 2.5 (+125) goal total has a shot in this game, but the Asian total is a safer game. In Peru’s last nine qualifiers, only two have seen three or more goals. Two of Argentina’s five home qualifying games have been passed. And when these two teams played in Peru in November 2020, it was a 2-0 Argentina victory.
The Asian total under 2.75 refunds half the bet if it is exactly a three goal game.
Prediction: Argentina 2, Peru 0
- Money line: Argentina -575 / Draw +650 / Peru +1600
- Spread: Argentina -2.5 (+145) / Peru +2.5 (-190)
- O / U 2.5 total goals: Over -155 / Under +125
- Both teams will score: Yes +180 / No -240