Some 65 nations will see their GDP fall by around 20 percent by 2050 if temperatures continue to rise, says a new report released at COP26.
The 65 most vulnerable nations will see their gross domestic product (GDP) fall 20 percent on average by 2050 and 64 percent by 2100 if the world warms 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit), according to a report published Monday in COP26. climate talks in Glasgow.
Even if global temperature increases are capped at 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F), in accordance with the more ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, the same countries would suffer a GDP impact of 13 percent for 2050 and 33 percent by the end of the century, according to the study. commissioned by Christian Aid, he said.
To date, Earth’s average surface temperature has risen 1.1 ° C (2 ° F) compared to levels in the late 19th century.
The study’s findings show that more than a third of the world’s nations need urgent help building resilience if their economies are to withstand the onslaught of heat waves, droughts, floods and storms that global warming has made more intense and deadly. .
“The ability of countries in the Global South to develop sustainably is seriously compromised,” said lead author Marina Andrijevic of Humboldt University in Berlin.
“The political decisions we make now are crucial to prevent further damage.”
Eight of the ten most affected countries are in Africa and two in South America.
The 10 face GDP damage of more than 70 percent by 2100 under the current climate policy trajectory, and 40 percent even if global warming is capped at 1.5 ° C.
The country facing the worst GDP loss is Sudan, which was reeling in September by heavy rains and flash floods that affected more than 300,000 people.
The country would see a GDP reduction of 32 percent by 2050 and 84 percent by 2100 compared to if there were no climate change.
The countries covered by the report constitute two key negotiating blocs in the United Nations climate talks, which run through Friday: the least developed countries (LDCs) and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
Small island states are especially vulnerable to storm surge exacerbated by rising sea levels.
The study does not take into account adaptive measures, which could potentially alleviate some of the damage.
To date, rich governments have committed only modest sums to help poor countries adapt to climate shocks.
“Africa has done the least to bring about climate change, but this report shows that it will face the gravest consequences. That is deeply unfair, ”said Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based energy and climate think tank Power Shift Africa.